Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.152008 0.180000 0.212898 0.254734 0.306975 0.370653 4.550693e-01
2025-07-27 0.123421 0.159499 0.206771 0.274484 0.371068 0.507198 7.197852e-01
2025-08-03 0.101184 0.140795 0.197801 0.288657 0.435444 0.674032 1.115854e+00
2025-08-10 0.081344 0.120504 0.181607 0.288734 0.483034 0.845802 1.646679e+00
2025-08-17 0.064831 0.101268 0.162217 0.278499 0.513057 1.013359 2.334707e+00
2025-08-24 0.054984 0.090452 0.154013 0.286207 0.584593 1.322065 3.729138e+00
2025-08-31 0.047092 0.081181 0.146257 0.293081 0.663000 1.726436 6.112055e+00
2025-09-07 0.040951 0.073714 0.140073 0.301990 0.757163 2.290103 1.053819e+01
2025-09-14 0.035911 0.067242 0.134272 0.310437 0.861926 3.049529 1.896599e+01
2025-09-21 0.030935 0.059826 0.124498 0.305505 0.928074 3.798846 3.216965e+01
2025-09-28 0.024922 0.049039 0.104368 0.264683 0.846129 3.774397 3.892134e+01
2025-10-05 0.022383 0.045390 0.100486 0.270267 0.948509 4.985835 7.762623e+01
2025-10-12 0.020419 0.042807 0.099051 0.284986 1.117453 7.227205 2.056718e+02
2025-10-19 0.018766 0.040623 0.098165 0.302220 1.330426 10.854929 7.042954e+02
2025-10-26 0.017114 0.038107 0.095721 0.313512 1.540434 15.938431 3.060257e+03
2025-11-02 0.015285 0.034782 0.090054 0.309842 1.666447 21.258758 1.484310e+04
2025-11-09 0.013483 0.031199 0.082696 0.295784 1.711599 26.134963 8.717436e+04
2025-11-16 0.012370 0.029261 0.080021 0.301632 1.932383 38.540316 1.155147e+07
2025-11-23 0.011383 0.027486 0.077419 0.306910 2.175169 57.829859 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010553 0.026003 0.075419 0.314599 2.477526 91.384517 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009812 0.024641 0.073487 0.322013 2.817803 149.016182 NaN
2025-12-14 0.008969 0.022835 0.069487 0.315685 2.991233 213.019653 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007756 0.019737 0.060027 0.272426 2.575436 181.781953 NaN